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Long-Term Technological Forecasting in the U.S. Military during the Cold War (1970–1980s)

Long-Term Technological Forecasting in the U.S. Military during the Cold War (1970–1980s). Klio. 2016. №10. Pp. 182-191

This publication constitutes a logical continuation for a series of research papers on the U.S. experience in long-term technological forecasting for military purposes (very little known to the Russian academic and expert communities) which started with a study of the legendary project “Toward New Horizons”. This paper contains results of an in-depth examination of some truly unique documentary sources and works by American military historians, reconstructs the history of the largest research projects aimed at forecasting long-term science and technology trends implemented by different U.S. military services. These projects are compared in terms of organization of forecasting process, methodology, accuracy of forecast assessments and their impact on the U.S. military and military-technical policies in order to identify the criteria for success of such research endeavours. The paper consists of two parts. The second part examines the projects implemented in the 1970–1980s.